I've just read the thread from that first link... exactly what I've thought. The articles are at least 8 years old and a lot of new information is available. The OP (I'm not registered and can't see their names) apparently has a scientific background but didn't reply to posts questioning the point of those links, which tell just one side of a very complex story. One member is/was on progesterone cream (compounded), another on estradiol/testosterone sublingual and another was using Prometrium (same as Utrogestan) on her legs!! Some of them had hysterectomy and are using progesterone to counteract 'estrogen dominance', which is a non-scientific notion that has spread like wildfire. Some posters are clearly on other drugs and they don't seem to think about normal drug interactions and just focus on cross tolerance and GABA receptors. One poster has posted a link to a study that contradicts this theory and there's no reply from the OP...
Off to read the other one, but I'm afraid it will just confirm that these discussions are dangerous, because there seems to be a lot of 'I did this, I felt that' and the ultimate truth is everyone is different regarding hormones and drugs.
No, we're not being lied to...They are identical to our own hormones, being bio or body identical has nothing to do with being 'natural', they are synthesised in manufacturing facilities, like all drugs. Wikipedia is an easy reading, it's all there.
I understand that Utrogestan had a sedative effect on you, but it happens to almost everyone who takes it, it's not necessarily due to 'derailing GABA' because you take Valium... I've become suicidal on Utro, that's why I've decided to stop HRT and research to know what's my best option. And I don't take any other drugs.
Maybe 100mg will be enough now you have been on prog for years... things change.
I don't think reducing the gel will stop the bleeding, but you can try, response to hormones is very individual.
Regarding medication or psychotherapy for anxiety issues, I know many women don't get relief from HRT so it's clear that other causes must be investigated.
I can't comment on other people's experience, because everyone is different. Many factors contribute to hormone imbalance (and I'm talking about all hormones, not just estradiol, prog and testo).
If you truly believe that progesterone cross tolerance with Valium is your real problem, the rational thing to do is to taper off progesterone. Unfortunately Utrogestan is not available in alternative doses, so the only way is to stop taking it vaginally.
You don't want your doctors to know that you're still having unscheduled bleeding because you are afraid they will change your HRT regime and you are absolutely certain this will affect your GABA receptors and you will go nuts. There's a lot of assumptions, but let's pretend you're absolutely right, what difference will it make if you stop bleeding and then go to the doctors? Are you going to have a hysteroscopy? Well, that's what you're going to have if you go now...
I think your only options, if you're really not sharing this with any doctor, is to wait for the bleeding to stop (how long? no idea) or decrease the gel, but you might end up having hot flushes and sweats again. So, what's the point? If you don't bleed but you also don't sleep your anxiety will ramp up.
I understand you are asking for help because you don't know what to do, but you have to admit you are imposing conditions that are hard for anyone with a conscience to agree with, refusing to share your symptoms with a doctor and assuming that they are absolutely useless regarding hormones and sedatives. You must be able to talk to a decent doctor, you could ask to have a video chat with a different doctor and blame it on Covid...