Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Sparrow]

Shadyglade...what, we should be taking a pinch of salt too now?!?

Oh yes.  Best with vinegar on chips 🍟 though. 

[CLKD]

I fancy chips .......... well salted with vinegar ....... 

[Tc]

When we only test people who are so ill they're in hospital the death rate is guaranteed to be high. Had we tested everyone in the community with symptoms the rate would have been much lower. The comparison is meaningless.

But if you take the testing out of the equation their death rate is still very low in comparrison.
X

[CLKD]

We don't have the testing kits yet.  Some aren't reliable enough.  Which is why we have to continue with lock down.

[Tc]

They are not always reliable. My fam member tested twice once positive once negative. Docs are ignoring the neg as they said it's a false negative they can tell by her lung scan.

Something I dont get. I've just seen on news sadly an elderly couple died on Monday but both had been isolating.  Not the first to have said the same thing. .  If they isolated totally . How did they become symptomatic so long after lockdown. ?

[CLKD]

They died in the same Hospital.  Can't remember the story but it is on the BBC News 'regions' site.

Now there are scammers making NHS-like name tapes so that people can go shopping during the times the Supermarkets have given over to personnel  - Trading Standards have stopped thousands of hand sanitiser bottles which have an illegal ingredient in. 

[Sparrow]

They are not always reliable. My fam member tested twice once positive once negative. Docs are ignoring the neg as they said it's a false negative they can tell by her lung scan.

Something I dont get. I've just seen on news sadly an elderly couple died on Monday but both had been isolating.  Not the first to have said the same thing. .  If they isolated totally . How did they become symptomatic so long after lockdown. ?

It can take up 14 days for symptoms to start and then it can 3 weeks plus before it is fatal.  Some people are in ICU for weeks.  They may well have been infected before the lock down.

[Two hoots]

I've seen lots of people on tv saying I'm isolating, but they are not they are distancing.  Isolating means no contact with anyone, having food brought to you and not sharing anything even a bathroom, or if you do you must clean thoroughly.  If you are distancing you can receive shopping or mail but from 6 foot away, and live in the same rooms as others. This is what I think, am I wrong ?

[Hurdity]

Yes exactly. You are only isolating if you or anyone in your household has symptoms of the virus and noone must go out for 14 days or longer if you get it late on in the 14 days as you have to then isolate for 7 days from start of symptoms or more if you still have temp and symptoms. Some people in vulnerable groups are not going out shopping etc ( like my husband in his 70's) but he's not isolating as he still sees neighbours ( at a distance) and goes for walks from the village etc

Hurdity x

[Hurdity]

It can take up 14 days for symptoms to start and then it can 3 weeks plus before it is fatal.  Some people are in ICU for weeks.  They may well have been infected before the lock down.

Thsi is exactly the point and why the numbers of deaths rose almost exponentially during the first 3 weeks. Fortunately it looks like the number of people in hospital with CV-19 is gradually starting to decrease so the daily numbers (which are hospital deaths) should start to plateau and gradually fall.

What will be a shock will be next Tues and especially the following week (28th April) ONS data as these will reflect the very high numbers of care home deaths that are being reported this week but are compiled weekly with all the other deaths

.

When we only test people who are so ill they're in hospital the death rate is guaranteed to be high. Had we tested everyone in the community with symptoms the rate would have been much lower. The comparison is meaningless.

But if you take the testing out of the equation their death rate is still very low in comparrison.
X

Exactly. The death RATE is the number of deaths from the disease as a proportion of the total number with the disease. We have no idea what this is as testing was abandoned once we entered phase 2 ie mitigate rather than contain. This was not forseen and should have been.

Once (if) there is an accurate antibody test, then population wide testing will determine what our infection rate was and thence our death rate. It will probably be similar everywhere.

Where countries will differ is in the total numbers of deaths per head of population but also this is not a really a proper measure either. I think the most useful comparison is looking at the trajectories of numbers of deaths over time since the first 50 deaths were announced and the number of tests carried out at the time as well as when lockdown and other measures were introduced. Also other strategies. Countries like S Korea I gather did extensive testing and rigorous and strict contact tracing and isolation (I think) like we did in our failed containment phase.

We are going to have to go back to that if and when loackdowmn measures are eased gradually otherwise we will get a second peak or more so the disease comes and goes in undulating waves as measures are lifted and then tightened. I think this was mooted some time ago actually right when Boris first introduced the very soft social distancing in the first week ie the waves of mini epidemics as restrictions were eased once we had come down from the first main flattened peak.

Hurdity x

[Tc]

I believe shielding means not going out at all.  I thought those who are working outside the home are not isolating and Isolating is only going  out for essential shopping, meds and excersise once a day. Isnt it? Unless you or someone in the household shows symptoms. In which case I think maybe the symptom situation should be called "quarantine " to distinguish it from isolation.?

When I referred to Germany I didnt mean the death rate. I worded that wrong. I meant the number of deaths. But as you say hurdity thst will have to be worked out per capita to vmgst a true picture.

I still think we allowed ourselves to lose sight of the virus by not tracing.

X

[CLKD]

Sheilding - those with underlying conditions - for 3 months.  Inside.  No contact with anyone.  Bathroom/bedroom - separate from anyone else.  Impossible in most households 

I can't understand why people who have been to Hospital from a care home, are returned to the care home  .  Surely that's where the Nightingale Hospitals come in .........  to keep the rest of the residents safe?

[Hurdity]

I believe shielding means not going out at all.  I thought those who are working outside the home are not isolating and Isolating is only going  out for essential shopping, meds and excersise once a day. Isnt it? Unless you or someone in the household shows symptoms. In which case I think maybe the symptom situation should be called "quarantine " to distinguish it from isolation.?

When I referred to Germany I didnt mean the death rate. I worded that wrong. I meant the number of deaths. But as you say hurdity thst will have to be worked out per capita to vmgst a true picture.

I still think we allowed ourselves to lose sight of the virus by not tracing.

X

Hi Tc - self-isolation is as I said. You can't go out at all and if you have symptomns must separate from other household members. The rest of the household can mingle with each other but has to stay home completely. Most of us who are not ill are going out shopping or going to work, exercise. We are not isolating, we're practsing social distancing according to the new govt restrictions etc. Shielding is different. These people can't go out for 12 weeks for their own protection and are people with certain health conditions are extremely vulnerable ie the top tier of especvially vulnerable. However they can still mingle with members of their own household as long as they don't have symptoms of CV19. Complicated innit?! we've had to learn a completely new way of behaving and a new language to boot!

Hurdity x

[Katejo]

Clearly there's a lot of confusion. Too many different terms being used.

In my area there are plenty of over 70s still out and about and doing shopping - why otherwise would supermarkets open early for them two or three times a week?

I understood the only people who needed to stay in the house were those of any age who received 'the letter' - eg my nephew with CF.

The whole business of isolating within the home if you have symptoms is problematic in an average sized house and also raises lots of questions because we've all now heard of households where it just doesn't seem to spread around in the way you'd expect - this is where testing is needed to find out who may be a symptomless carrier.

I would have problems self isolating in my own house unless I were ill enough to stay in bed all day and wanted nothing to eat. I have a lodger here. I couldn't expect him to get me food/prepare food and there is only 1 bathroom. It happens that he never uses the living room anyway. He either stays in his room or uses the kitchen. If I had symptoms, my neighbour would shop for me but I would still have to use the kitchen.

In the more relaxed rules in Sweden, other residents in the house don't have to stay isolated at home if one resident is ill. they can go out as long as they don't develop symptoms. I read this in an article but I am going to ask my Swedish friend about it. She is over 70 but healthy and she still goes out for walks on her own and to buy food but observes social distancing.

[Tc]

Thanks hurdity. I had got that wrong all along. As you say, confusing.  It is actually quite Important we all understand the terminology realy as when reporting symptoms ppl might say they have been isolating when they havent. 

As far as symptomatic households go there is quite a lot of info on govt site about it. It's under "guidance for households with possible covid". If anyone wants to look at it.

Strangely,  my sis has been told by 111 that she must stay in for 14 days not from the date her MIL first got symptoms but from the day she went into hospital which was 10 days later.. 

Katejo. In Sweden the govt has trusted ppl to be responsible. bars and restaurants still open in stockholm that approach didnt work well here hence our eventual lockdown.  . I read yesterday  that they are now "grappling  with a higher death toll than their scandinavian neighbours".    Will be interesting to how your friend feels about it 

Xxx