Just for clarification the Women's Health Initiative is based in US and it was that group that carried out the controversial HRT trials, the results of which led to much of the current (mis)information on the effect of HRT and cancer risk. It was this particularly which was discredited for a number of reasons, but because it was a randomised controlled trial it was originally given a lot of credence. The Oxford Group carried out the Million Women Study - I don't know much about this but was an long-term observational study just using questionnaires I think, not a trial, but also published around the same time. Information is still being collected. Because it is not a trial then again no definite conclusions about cause and effect can be drawn even though data are interesting.
Also re the timing - I agree it is very unfortunate and likely to scare a lot of women into stopping HRT at a time when it's difficult to get hold of. However it takes some time for a paper to be published from the time of submission as it has to be peer-reviewed. Having looked at the Lancet website this morning there can be a fast-track process where a paper can be reviewed and published within 4 weeks so if this process was followed for this paper then it presumably was submitted a month ago - possibly before the recent headlines about HRT shortages?
Like someone said earlier in the thread, my husband also was expressing sympathy towards me as he brought me my morning cuppa having heard the headlines this morning, saying I might get breast cancer (which I might anyway), and he's a scientist. After I explained to him in a befuddled half awake state after looking briefly at the Lancet paper he understood what I was getting at.
Yes Mirena does provide continuous progestogen at approx the same rate probably as a Femseven patch but probably less than tablet HRT. However in the short term I really wouldn't worry and as others have said - get slim, take exercise, eat well, stop smoking, cut the booze and you will at least be able to take HRT knowing you are minimising other risks and protecting yourself from other long term conditions.
I shall continue to use my oestrogen patch and bio-identical progesterone taken on a long cycle (ie minimising the progesterone), and be vigilant about any adverse symptoms or unexpected bleeding.
Rock and a hard place come to mind as we contemplate living into our 90's - the lucky ones.
Hurdity x