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[sheila99]

I don't suppose we'll ever know but I'd like to know more about the excess deaths. Many will be from CV but how many are from people who chose not to seek treatment and how many because they didn't get an appointment. Deaths from untreated cancer etc are probably still to come. The only bright spot I can think of is that we had a particularly mild winter with no major killer diseases so some might be people who would already have died in a 'normal' winter.

[Tc]

Has anyone heard anything about routine mammogram screening.? My 3 years are up and I've heard nothing.

[Kathleen]

Hello ladies.

Today's Guardian has the stats from the sciencist who was sacked for meeting with his married lover during lockdown. Perhaps he has an axe to grind but his data is showing a very worrying trend. He has also confirmed the care homes are responsible for spreading the virus in their communities.

The mathmetician Hannah Fry  said that looking at the government's daily graphs made her eyes bleed! I'm suspicious of their data but if I was as clever as her I'd know why lol.

Take care everyone.

K.

[Two hoots]

I heard something that I didn't know about nursing homes, the same staff work in several private run homes, so one person with the virus could have taken it into many. I assumed you worked in one home but wondered why so many nursing homes had infections.

In my area the majority of deaths are in nursing homes but the number of extra deaths reported is very low. I dont know anyone who has had it apart from the family members who were quite ill in December and January.

Like Blot I hope everyone can get the anti body test in the future if its accurate.

[jillydoll]

Yes, that's true TH. A lot of people work at different care homes, if they?re not contracted for 40 hours. mostly to make their hours up. So therefore, the virus got spread around easily, especially agency workers, who get sent to several different locations every week.

[Tc]

My aunt had to get in touch with the heart failure unit my uncle is under as he is unwell.(both sheilding).  A nurse came out... She told my aunt she is visiting mostly elderly all day. And has to drive home, remove all clothing and shower between each home she visits.  .
X

[CLKD]

My sister heads up a private care home with NHS clients.  No PPE from the NHS.  Most of the Staff - 15 of them - have other jobs in the care sector due to not being paid enough .......... she is temperature testing her Staff 3 times a day and clients morning and evening. 

Also: how many Death Certificates will skew the death numbers - thanks Hurdity - because C-19 has been added when the patient hasn't had it at all.  We will never know.  In some cases the GP signing the death cert hadn't even known/seen the patient ........ in Scotland unexplained deaths are being investigated, sometimes by the Police. 

[CLKD]

Police are investigating a care home that was ordered to close following a major coronavirus outbreak.

Fifteen residents of Temple Court in Kettering, Northamptonshire have died with Covid-19 or suspected Covid-19.

The Care Quality Commission (CQC), which regulates care homes, said it had serious concerns and residents were moved out of the home last month. [would love to read that report, why didn't they do something about it then?]

A spokesperson for Temple Court said the home would "co-operate fully" with enquiries.

The findings of a CQC inspection carried out in the week residents were moved out are to be released soon, according to the Local Democracy Reporting Service.

Staff sickness
Northamptonshire County Council is also carrying out an investigation under section 42 of the Care Act, which happens when there are allegations of abuse or neglect.

In a statement, Northamptonshire Police said it was "aware of the recent issues relating to Temple Court Care Home in Kettering".

The force added: "We are working with the Safeguarding Adults Team at Northamptonshire County Council to investigate these further."

A spokesperson for Temple Court, run by the Minster Care Group, said the home had been "left in an extremely challenging position after a sudden influx of residents from the NHS - some of whom had very complex needs - and a subsequent outbreak of Covid-19".

The home added that a "large number of staff" were absent because of the virus and the home was "left disproportionately reliant on the use of agency staff".

[Apparently the NHS pre-booked over 1,500 care home beds across the UK ....... giving Managers little chance of saying 'no'.  This was well B4 the care system was completely aware of the possible consequences of taking in patients from Hospitals  ]

[Hurdity]

We've been through this several times before because you have made the same point and I put links about death certificates. To repeat myself and really I'm not going to look for the links again, it is a very complex process writing a death cert from what I read, and there are death certs where CV19 was the main cause and those where it is mentioned on the death cert as contributing to the death or hastened it. All sort of different data are available and analysed ie hospital deaths from confirmed CV19, care home deaths with confirmed CV19, care home or other deaths where CV19 is mentioned on death cert. Analysed reguarly by ONS. The daily data we are given are those confimed in hospitals and the community including care homes, that have tested positive for CV19. The weekly data analyse all of it (the different measures) as far as I can gather.

The main point I was making which are the excess deaths. Not where CV19 has been added without a confirmed positive test ( and this surely won't be added without a very good reason eg others in the home who have had it etc).

To repeat, the most important figure (and this is recognised by the authorities) is the figure for excess deaths from all-causes over the 5 years average for the same time period. The graphs of these have been shown and wdiely reported and you can see the huge peak coinciding with the UK CV19 epidemic. The figures reported weekly (last Tuesday was the latest) gives figures up to week-ending 22nd May and showed 62K excess deaths. I said all this in my previous post but you've missed the point. These are closer to the true figure of deaths from CV19 and including those where deaths from other causes indirectly led to death eg heart attacks where emergency help was not sought quickly enough. In my view there are also likely to be more having died from CV19 and not mentioned on death cert than less. At the height of the epidemic all services were stretched, so I can imagine it would be under rather than over-reported though I have no evidence of that!

Hurdity x

[Two hoots]

The only way we will get a clearer picture is when we can compare the death rate from 2020 to previous years. If other countries do the same then it will be easier to compare because every country has its own way of reporting. Its going to be a long time until these figures are known but it?ll be a true record of how the UK has been hit, until then .....

[CLKD]

Even if others in hospital, care or nursing homes have tested positive, it is not a reason for a GP who has never seen the patient to sign C-19 as a cause of death.  Even if a person dies in a similar way to others who tested positive, it doesn't mean that they were.  Which is why Northants Police are now investigating why so many residents died in Kettering.

It is more likely that NHS Staff will recognise C-19 symptoms and there will be a pattern to the disease, recovery or death from the Virus.  But care home staff will be unlikely to have seen such a death rate and one should never assume that all are caused by 'what's going round'. 


It seems to be usual for Scotland to investigate unexplained deaths even during this upheaval. 

[Blot]

The daily death figures are bad again today. I just think we are easing lockdown too quickly. Why did they not wait another few weeks? Please someone tell me it's not as bad as it seems ☹️

And now all staff have to wear masks in hospital. After being told we couldn't wear them and it wasn't necessary. Utter fiasco.

[CLKD]

It really is difficult to know why the Government keeps altering it's mind.  There doesn't seem to be any basis to anything any more ....

Masks will be provided to patients after temperature has been taken .......  to protect others of course.

How will one be able to reassure a train Guard that one has a genuine reason not to wear a mask  .

I think it's getting beyond hindsight now.  Decision seem to be made off the top of someone's head .......

[Hurdity]

The only way we will get a clearer picture is when we can compare the death rate from 2020 to previous years. If other countries do the same then it will be easier to compare because every country has its own way of reporting. Its going to be a long time until these figures are known but it?ll be a true record of how the UK has been hit, until then .....

This is what I was referring to in my post. Every week the ONS anlyses these data and compares the total deaths in 2020 to the 5 year average. I haven't read this article but the graph at the beginning shows excess deaths for a number of European countries compared with 2018-2019 (just had a quick look).
https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/understanding-excess-mortality-international-comparisons

Here is one of the ONS reports:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending22may2020

Scroll down to number 3 to look at one of the graphs showing execss deaths.

Hurdity x

[Sparrow]

The excess deaths for the Hong Kong flu pandemic was 80,000, in the UK.  We are only halfway to that at the moment.

Food for thought.