Wow very interesting bomb. Thanks for all those studies....
Especially this last paragraph in the 2nd paper:
"The absolute increase would be about 2·0 per 100 women (one in every 50 users) for oestrogen-plus-daily-progestagen MHT, 1·4 per 10 women (one in 70 users) for oestrogen-plus-intermittent-progestagen MHT, and 0·5 per 100 women (one in 200 users) for oestrogen-only MHT. There is little difference in the absolute excess incidence by age 70 associated with starting 5 years of MHT use at ages 45 years, 50 years, or 55 years. Thus, addition of a daily progestagen increases the excess risk of breast cancer from one in 200 users to one in 50 users."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)31709-X/fulltext So - much safer for BC risk to take P sequentially rather than continuously. Although I think this used synthetic progestins and not body identical P?
Really, if I had to choose between a slightly elevated risk of BC and a slightly elevated risk of endometrial cancer, I'd choose the latter. Because it's much less common (so absolute risk actually isn't that great, even if increased) plus there are many more 'warning signs' in terms of excess bleeding etc to look out for. Zero warning signs of BC....
This is also interesting:
"Estrogen alone or in combination with a progestin improves lipoproteins and lowers fibrinogen levels without detectable effects on postchallenge insulin or blood pressure. Unopposed estrogen is the optimal regimen for elevation of HDL-C, but the high rate of endometrial hyperplasia restricts use to women without a uterus. In women with a uterus, CEE with cyclic MP has the most favorable effect on HDL-C and no excess risk of endometrial hyperplasia."
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7807658/With the sleep, I feel like I am getting good quality sleep on vaginal P. When I took oral, if I got the sedative effects they felt really weird and not like they resulted in 'normal' sleep. Which fits with Dr Gersh's concerns about oral P potentially increasing the risk of dementia because it acts basically like a sedative or sleep aid.
And yes, please give us the last link to Dr Gersh's summary - the link is the same as the rodent study at the mo