I definitely think a reduced doseage (whether gel or patch) has "co-incided" with reduced "blubber" so it would suggest a link in my case, however I think there are several variables to take into account.
When I started HRT I was peri-menopausal so my hormones were fluctuating wildly and I think it is really difficult to get the balance of HRT right during this phase, so there will be times when you may have too much oestrogen (your own plus HRT). I still think I may be peri (difficult to know having had bleeds on HRT) but the GPs seem adamant that I should be meno by now as nearly 56. I currently feel like my own hormones are no longer wildly fluctuating and more stable (but who knows when that may change, again
).
In terms of the HRT itself one of the problems I was having was managing the balance of oestrogen and progesterone (along with everything else). I could tolerate utrogestan for 14 days a month but didn't feel right on continuous utrogestan which is why I went for the patch as GP said I should be on continuous. Other option is Mirena coil for progesterone but I dont want one.
So in summary it could be (any or combination of...) my own hormones have levelled out, the balance of O&P suits me better on the patch and/or the reduced doseage of Oestrogen has reduced the blubber.
Like I say there doesn't appear to be a definitive answer. It is a question of tweaking and I would suggest when tweaking to give it a few weeks to settle before you tweak again.
Hope this makes sense.