As has already been said by Prof Michael Baum – the study is extremely complex and entails very involved multivariate statistical analysis in relation to a condition for which there are many confounding factors as all the medical experts have recognised and several of us have pointed out on here.
This is what he said: “This paper is extremely difficult to understand even by an expert like me, and I would need many hours to ingest it allâ€
Medical doctors (private or NHS, or both) have their own opinion on the matter, but that's what it is, their opinion. I wouldn't take their word as gospel, when many are on the hormone business.
BeaR.
I'm not sure what you mean here bear? Because this is a statistical analysis of a collection of data it is all open to interpretation, including from the authors of the study. The medical doctors (private and NHS) who have provided the main critiques of this study are forming an informed judgement based on the evidence. Do you mean that you do not trust their opinion – because they are “on the hormone business� I really don't understand what you're saying. Of course they prescribe hormones – it is their job to prescribe appropriate licensed medication including HRT. There have been many informed responses to the study by leading gynaecologists and menopause specialists. I for one trust that they have read understood and digested this new study and have found its flaws and where appropriate recognised its strengths far better than I can with my limited understanding of it all.
Statistics can prove anything from anything about anything ........ I worked with a few statisticians years ago
. What I want is hard evidence, not possibilities or maybes.
It is important to distinguish between a mechanistic or biological explanation for how things work – on individuals - (our bodies, our cells, and the effects of drugs and medications on our cells and hormones etc), and the effect on populations – which examines the differential effect of those treatments - because each individual will respond in a slightly different way even though the underlying biological principles are the same. Because we are genetically different including minute differences in our cells and enzymes etc then in order to find out if something works or not we need to carry out population studies and to be meaningful there has to be statistical analysis. We can't just say eg 55 % experienced this effect of a particular medication but 45 % didn't therefore it must work. We need to know how many people it was tested on and so forth. How you group the populations (and data) to be tested and the statistical analysis chosen can vary enormously and can influence the outcome and differential interpretation and is therefore open to criticism. This is especially important in discussion of risk and causality.
As yet, as far as I know the proposed mechanism whereby oestrogen actually causes breast cancer is not established – although there are explanations regarding oestrogen-receptive cancers and oestrogen causing these to grow ( when they have arisen by other means). Re genetic factors and the BRAC gene – I don't know anything about this but not really the subject of this thread so won't get distracted. Also beyond my knowledge...
One other point that has been raised re doctors and practitioners telling us what we should and should not take. I like Prof Baum's point on this:
“
In the modern era paternalism of the profession has been replaced by the principle of partnership whereby patients are helped to make informed decisions.â€
I'd like to fly that as a banner in every surgery and clinic up and down the land!
Well said and please all of you take control of your own health and do not let any doctor or nurse tell you that you cannot take HRT (unless there is a very good specific medical reason why you should not do so) if you want to do so, nor take you off it against your will and without adequate reason.
Sorry got carried away there!
Prof Baum's statement has been linked to before but here it is again (from Louise Newson's website) for those who don't have time to read the whole thread:
https://www.menopausedoctor.co.uk/news/leading-breast-cancer-specialist-professor-michael-baum-responds-to-irresponsible-reportingRe NICE - I understand (from another site) that they plan to send an alert to GPs after this news has come out and let's hope the alert is a balanced response and advice.
Hurdity x