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Author Topic: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion  (Read 7586 times)

Hurdity

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Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
« Reply #30 on: April 03, 2020, 08:05:36 PM »

There was discussion on the coronavirus chat threads about viral load so I found some info:

Centre for Evidence based medicine

SARS-CoV-2 viral load and the severity of COVID-19

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/sars-cov-2-viral-load-and-the-severity-of-covid-19/

New Scientist
Does a high viral load or infectious dose make covid-19 worse?

Read more:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238819-does-a-high-viral-load-or-infectious-dose-make-covid-19-worse/

Telegraph
 
What is viral load and why are so many health workers getting sick?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/viral-load-many-health-workers-getting-sick/

Hurdity x
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Lanie66

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Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
« Reply #31 on: April 08, 2020, 09:12:15 AM »

Morning ladies, I haven't looked at the forum for a little while then logged on this morning to find all this great info.   This is really useful especially for those of us trying to avoid news bulletins and facebook both of which focus on the bad news.  This forum is a safe place to come.  I know there is a lot of bad news, I didnt have health anxiety before but I do now. I'm sure that's the same for alot of people.

I mainly want to vent about 3 things, hope that's ok.  Firstly, how purposeless I feel - I feel lucky and guilty at the same time that I am not a front line worker, nor have I volunteered other than giving my number to a couple of elderly in my street. Ordinary people have become crucial to all our lives, putting themselves at risk while the rest of us stay at home.  I find this in particular difficult to rationalise. I am so grateful to them.

Secondly, my anxiety is heightened as my husband (54) has a rare condition which primarily produces lung cysts.  Hes had pleurectomy ops to remove but in my mind hes bound to be at higher risk.  He has not been identified by letter so looks like same risk as anyone else. Related to this, we don't know if my 19yr old daughter has inherited this condition, she could get tested at 18 but was still thinking whether to or not when this virus erupted.  When I hear the phrase 'no known health conditions' I realise that it could be you've got something you just dont know you have it. This is the reason I dont volunteer in case I bring something into the house.  I'm also the one doing the shopping etc to reduce the risk to my family. I realise this is all in my head.

And thirdly I have read about the perceived (not proven) additional risk for people with blood group A in catching the virus more easily and being less able to recover from it.  I am A-, as is my son, my daughter is A+.  I've heard all sorts of Covid19 related discussions, particularly we listen to radio 5, (or I did), but nothing that has mentioned the Chinese study on blood types or anything similar.  There must be lots of info that is withheld so as not to cause mass panic. Theres the anxiety.

These are terrible times for all of us, and
I'm finding that trying to maintain composure is becoming more and more difficult.

Thanks for allowing me to bleat on.  Stay safe everyone x
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Lanie66

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Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
« Reply #32 on: April 10, 2020, 07:38:33 AM »

Thank you Stellajane for your words of reason and reassurance.  We have no way of knowing how bad it really is since the UK Govt in its wisdom isn't releasing all the stats, maybe that's a good thing. Trying to find the quietest time at a supermarket 30 minutes  away will continue to be a challenge ;)

xx
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Hurdity

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Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
« Reply #33 on: April 10, 2020, 09:38:38 AM »

Hi lanie66 - sorry to hear about your worries about your husband's condition amidst the current CV-19 pandemic. Of course you have purpose at this time, especially as the one in your family who is keeping the others going by doing the shopping! Very stressful! I am doing it for my household (husband in mid 70's) as well as an elderly relative in 90's who lives a drive away. I know what you mean about conditions. I have a close realtive with a particular condition so is definitley in the vulnerable group possibly also shpould be shieled ( is doing this themsleves) but the condition is such that it is very variable so is not offocially in that A1 category. My neighbour in 60's also has bronchiectasis - another condition with lung cysts and also very vulnerable (more so than my husband in 70's who is fit and healthy) though not among the shielded and she is also not going out at all.

Regarding the blood group research - hello to a fellow A negative!!! I had to have the injections after my children were born. Of course the media tend to like sensational headlines. The actual study has not yet been published officially as it has not been peer reviewed and as far as I gather the results were not statistically significant. I found a critique of it the other day but can't find the same one now. However here is the study (prior to publication):

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v2.full.pdf

There are also comments on it underneath here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v2

Here are some commentaries on it:

Scientific commentary
https://www.sciencealert.com/paper-suggests-certain-blood-types-might-be-slightly-more-susceptible-to-covid-19

Candian journalism article:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/experts-skeptical-of-study-linking-blood-type-to-covid-19-risk-1.4869886

There are heaps more if you want to look.

I did have a quick glance the other day but saw nothing alarming. I mean it would be unusual for there not to be slight genetic differences in susceptibility to diseases and the immune response although I am way out of my depth here!

I won't get into any of the political disucssion about figures etc on this thread as I want to keep it mainly to the science etc but do please visit the This and That section where there are multiple Coronavirus threads and you will find lots more words of comfort and support and chat about all your worries from the members that have the time to come onto the forum.

However I just wanted to take up one point you made. I don't know what you mean by "the UK Govt in its wisdom isn't releasing all the stats" ? I am wondering what stats you are interested in that you feel are being withheld? The way I see it - there just are not the stats available for example to look at the epdiemiology of this disease in UK because as soon as we entered the second mitigate phase, widespread testing stops, so not so much iwtholding data but just not there! The govt releases daily figures by region of numbers of cases tested positive, those admitted to hospital, those in cirtical care, as well as total deaths from CV-19 in hospital, and there are now weekly figures of total deaths (produced by ONS) including those outside hospitals where CV-19 is strongly suspected as being the cause.

Anyway all the best and try to keep your spirits up in this glorious weather if you can get out either in your garden if you have one or for a daily walk? :)

Hurdity x





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Lanie66

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Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
« Reply #34 on: April 11, 2020, 08:49:44 PM »

Thankyou for taking the time to respond so fully, Hurdity.  I wont labour about the stats thing here, it doesn't help anyone and as you say its more about discussing rather than politics.

I will check out the links and the this and that section. 

Yes weather is glorious even here in the very north of England! I have a lovely garden which I feel very fortunate to have and it is work in progress so it keeps us busy.   

Best wishes to you and your family during this.   Stay safe xx
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sheila99

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Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
« Reply #35 on: April 11, 2020, 10:36:46 PM »

Try Morrisons, I ordered on Thurs for delivery on Monday.
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Emma

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Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
« Reply #36 on: May 07, 2020, 02:16:38 PM »



I've removed some posts on here for spreading misinformation.
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Taz2

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Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
« Reply #37 on: May 07, 2020, 03:04:34 PM »

Thanks Emma.

Taz  :)
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CLKD

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Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
« Reply #38 on: May 07, 2020, 03:41:16 PM »

How would you know  :-\
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CLKD

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Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
« Reply #40 on: May 07, 2020, 06:48:39 PM »

 :thankyou: maybe the responses should have had a separate thread so that we can all keep up  with what might be true or otherwise?  We post in all good faith ..........
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Tc

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Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
« Reply #41 on: May 07, 2020, 08:33:09 PM »

Thank you. I agree that unverified or unsubstantiated information can be dangerous. 

But i also believe  the expression "mis information"  has  historically been used to curb freedom of speech and I'm very wary of it myself.

So in general, I  believe freedom of speech when quoting sources (and not breaking the law or  being offensive  or prejudiced or inciting hate or harm  to individuals or groups)  might then allow  for others to counter, contradict or debunk. To think and research for themselves and  is perhaps more enlightening than using one media source to be the guide of what should and shouldnt be expressed and discussed.

I have always steered clear of party politics on here. In my life it's something I've increasingly become disinterested in. and I only ever share my personal experience and those which I have first hand of on here  but I also have to say  I personally  do not look to the BBC to gauge what is true and what isnt..

I value this forum very highly indeed and appreciate the work that goes into running it.  It is fundamentally about menopause,of course, but in these unprecedented times we cant divorce our experience as menopausal.women from our experience of such a  huge global issue which has had such a massive impact on all our lives.   

I hope we can all continue to support each other through menopause during this crisis and continue to be respectful and mindful of what we say and how it affects others.

Thank you again.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2020, 08:44:42 PM by Tc »
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CLKD

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Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
« Reply #42 on: May 07, 2020, 08:36:00 PM »

 :thankyou:   ........ we live in Strange Times and it will become stranger after Boris has his say on Sunday  ::)
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Sparrow

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Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
« Reply #43 on: May 08, 2020, 07:56:50 AM »

Tc, I agree with your posts.  Unfortunately I think depate has now been stifled as members will be concerned about crossing a vague, invisible line.

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Hurdity

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Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
« Reply #44 on: May 08, 2020, 08:31:37 AM »

What brought this on? I wasn't on the forum yesterday so have I missed something?

Well  I'm glad we don't give airtime to conspiracy theories if that's what it was about and certainly not on this thread!  The place for anything like that for those who are interested is This and That but I wouldn't waste my breath talking about them, or life reading about them and I feel sorry for scientists that have to waste their valuable time debunking them. Unfortunately these days fake news and daft ideas are very easy to spread and many cannot distinguish between proper science and rubbish (not here of course!).

Science does of course progress through hypotheses and controversy ? but always backed up by proper evidence, not pseudo-science or erroneous conclusions (eg correlation does not equal causation for one).

As to where we get our news from - well websites like the one below is reporting the science and reuptable news organisations distill some of this in an even easier to understand way. Although not of course infallible and maybe sometimes politically biased ( to the right?), but given the plethora of outlets available I think we can trust the BBC as far as communicating the science is concerned.

Anyway here are some of the latest developments from that website I linked to which explains scientific concepts in an easy to understand way:

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/?utm_source=Govdelivery&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=newsletter

Each article is short and simple but with ample scientific references for those who want to follow up a particular topic. Some of them we've discussed before on the forum and I've probably linked to them already on this thread or others but it won't hurt to show them again...

What lessons about vaccine development can be learnt from animal coronaviruses?

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/vdt0010/

What are the origins of novel human infectious diseases like COVID-19?

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/und0007/

How long can coronavirus survive outside of the body?

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/pub0008/

Can infected people without symptoms transmit coronavirus?

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/und0006/

The ethics of allocating scarce medical resources during a pandemic

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/pub0007/

Can animals get COVID-19?

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/cad0008/

Enjoy the bank holiday girls and stay safe  ::)

Hurdity x
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