Menopause Matters Forum

Menopause Discussion => Other Health Discussion => Topic started by: Hurdity on March 19, 2020, 10:36:40 AM

Title: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Hurdity on March 19, 2020, 10:36:40 AM
Hi there all

In vew of the current situation, there is a lot of information about this new disease pandemic and lots of threads and information all over the place including multiple threads in the chat room.

To help us read and discuss the science, epidemiology, and health aspects I am starting a thread here so that hopefully much of it can be in one place and members can find the information more easily.

Can we moderate this ourselves and keep the chat to the chat room?!

I'll kick off with a couple of links - some about the sceince and some about the epidemiology and the predicted peak.

Science Daily is a good source of information for those interested. https://www.sciencedaily.com/

Here is a paper about the spread and when symptoms are apparent:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200316143313.htm

"Coronavirus spreads quickly and sometimes before people have symptoms, study finds:

Summary:
Infectious disease researchers studying the novel coronavirus were able to identify how quickly the virus can spread, a factor that may help public health officials in their efforts at containment. They found that time between cases in a chain of transmission is less than a week and that more than 10 percent of patients are infected by somebody who has the virus but does not yet have symptoms. "

Here is another on incubation period:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200310164744.htm

"New study on COVID-19 estimates 5.1 days for incubation period

Median time from exposure to symptoms affirms earlier estimates and supports CDC's current 14-day quarantine period

Summary: An analysis of publicly available data on infections from the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that causes the respiratory illness COVID-19 yielded an estimate of 5.1 days for the median disease incubation period, according to a new study. "

Article discussing the paper from Imperial College which modelled the epidemiology and on which the most recent stricter measures were recommended on Monday evening (haven't read this yet!).

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/

Hurdity x
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Hurdity on March 20, 2020, 09:23:19 AM
Here is some information about drugs and vaccines being tested for Covid-19:

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/analysis/coronavirus-mers-cov-drugs/

Article entitled: "Coronavirus treatment: Vaccines/drugs in the pipeline for Covid-19"

Hurdity x
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Taz2 on March 20, 2020, 10:29:41 AM
Have you read anything about Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine? It's all over Twitter currently.

It's described as an anti-malaria drug which is well tolerated and (apparently according to an article said to have been on Breitbart.com) known to be effective since the SARS outbreak in 2005.

One has of course to be careful with social media ..... but still????

Yes I've heard a lot about that too but it's hard to find scientific evidence on it. Maybe you can help Hurdity. Thanks for this thread.

Taz x
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Sparrow on March 20, 2020, 10:44:03 AM

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/03/18/coronavirus-covid-19/#comments


From the above link:-

4: Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine

These drugs normally used to treat/prevent malaria (and are also used to treat various ?immune? disease). However, they have been found to be effective in treating other viruses and seem to have been highly effective against COVID-19 4. These drugs will only be available as part of medical management. They cannot be bought over the counter (in any country, as far as I know).

If you, or a loved one, is seriously ill, I would urge you to ask for ? one or the other ? to be used. Hydroxychloroquine has fewer side effects (drug related adverse effects)

ADVICE ? Ask for one of these drugs if you, or a loved one, is seriously ill with COVID-19.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Tc on March 20, 2020, 12:14:45 PM
Thank you ladies. X
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Hurdity on March 20, 2020, 12:56:39 PM
Have you read anything about Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine? It's all over Twitter currently.


That was why I posted the link this morning because you had said you had read about anti-malarial drugs.

This is what it said in brief:

"Chloroquine to be tested as coronavirus treatment in the US

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced on 19 March that chloroquine (hydroxychloroquine/Plaquenil), a drug used to treat malaria and arthritis, were approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to be tested as treatment for COVID-19. The drug is being tested in various clinical trials conducted by government agencies and academic institutions.

Other antivirals drugs are also planned to be fast tracked for testing for coronavirus."

I don't know anything about Malcolm Kendrick but I expect he is from US and should not be posting stuff like that giving people false hope!

Do read about what the US media have said eg here:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-treatment-trump-directs-fda-to-examine-whether-malaria-drug-can-be-used.html

and here:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/19/politics/fact-check-chloroquine-trump-fda/index.html

or here:
https://www.wired.com/story/an-old-malaria-drug-may-fight-covid-19-and-silicon-valleys-into-it/

Here is one "Breitbart" article giving summaries of 3 studies:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/18/malarial-drug-chloroquine-effective-against-coronavirus/

Hurdity x

PS don't want to sidetrack this thread as I'd love to keep it mainly on topic (CV science etc!) but what is breitbart?


Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Sparrow on March 20, 2020, 01:13:05 PM
Have you read anything about Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine? It's all over Twitter currently.


I don't know anything about Malcolm Kendrick but I expect he is from US and should not be posting stuff like that giving people false hope!


Sorry you have not heard of the good doctor so just to educate you.

I am a GP living in Macclesfield, having graduated from Aberdeen medical school many moons ago.

This blog is my best effort at providing some balance to the increasingly strident healthcare lobby that seems intent on scaring everyone about almost everything. Is there a foodstuff that is safe to eat anymore? Is there any activity that does not cause cancer or heart disease?


https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/about/

He has written several books and often appears on the media and is definitely not American, and as a doctor is better informed than you or I. 
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: sheila99 on March 20, 2020, 02:20:31 PM
So.. as chloroquine and quinine act in pretty much the same way.. will we all be drinking gin and tonic?
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: bear on March 20, 2020, 02:39:41 PM
Hi girls,

Hope everyone is managing to hang on... Stay safe.

Two good sources of information:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://promedmail.org/coronavirus/

BeaR.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Sparrow on March 20, 2020, 03:51:55 PM
Hi girls,

Hope everyone is managing to hang on... Stay safe.

Two good sources of information:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://promedmail.org/coronavirus/

BeaR.

Really interesting BeaR.  It's good to see clear stats.  Thank you.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Sparrow on March 20, 2020, 05:00:15 PM
Exactly sparkle.

Look up Dr. Malcolm Kendricks website, and his blog on the virus, or find it on the link in my previous posts.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: CLKD on March 20, 2020, 05:30:50 PM
VitD is a totally different issue ;-)
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Sparrow on March 20, 2020, 05:31:39 PM
VitD is a totally different issue ;-)

Too what?
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Sparrow on March 20, 2020, 05:37:37 PM
Sound advice, I'll look it up.  Thank you.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: bear on March 20, 2020, 06:05:15 PM
Hi girls,

One thing to bear in mind is that this virus has a protein called 'nsp1' that promotes cellular mRNA degradation and blocks host cell translation, resulting in blockage of innate immune response, so only acquired immune response, ie immune cells that have already been in contact with the viral antigens, can have a strong reaction against the virus. No vitamins will change that, but of course they can help you combat the virus indirectly by boosting many other mechanisms.

Regarding chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine, these substances are Zinc ionophores, they help the cells internalise Zinc ions (Zn2+) and zinc has been shown to inhibit Coronavirus RNA dependent-RNA polymerase (RdRp), which is a viral enzyme necessary for its multiplication.

Zinc supplements won't do the trick without chloroquine though.

https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1001176

BeaR.

PS: More pharmaceutical companies donating chloroquine
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/new-commitments-mylan-and-teva-move-to-supply-tens-millions-hydroxychloroquine-tablets-to
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Sparrow on March 20, 2020, 07:29:19 PM
Thanks BeaR,  I'm definitely up for a boost in any mechanism.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: bear on March 20, 2020, 08:06:27 PM
Thanks BeaR,  I'm definitely up for a boost in any mechanism.

Hi Shadyglade,

Absolutely, just to clarify that high levels might also be dangerous, particularly vitamin D, which is a hormone and not a vitamin, and effects might be unpredictable as we don't have a clear picture of this virus yet. Vitamin D enhances the absorption of calcium, which affects many different cell functions, so I would be cautious and make sure to take safe amounts. I wouldn't want to mess up with anything if I'm feeling well, but if you're already taking supplements they might help you in the long run and possibly in the short run as well.

Hi stellajane,

Regarding the use of chloroquine it's very important to know that this is a prescription only drug with serious side effects and patients with autoimmune conditions depend on it, many are already having difficulties to get hold of it in countries where they are sold without prescription.

Take care girls,

BeaR.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Hurdity on March 20, 2020, 08:44:49 PM
Obviously everyone needs to ensure their diet is absolutely as good as it can be without any deficiencies at this time and if it isn't then to supplement. In addition anything you can do to improve lung function and capacity - breathing, exercise that makes you out of breath, singing etc may help you to get through the disease.

On the main thread there was discussion about what causes death from CV-19 and the cytokine storm - from overactive immune response - in the sickest patients was highlighted.

For those who are interested ( and I haven't looked in depth at this) here is some information about the very serious cytokine storm syndrome, and potential treatments with immunosuppressive drugs.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/12/21176783/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-china-treatment-cytokine-storm-syndrome

https://www.uab.edu/news/research/item/11176-covid-19-do-not-forget-the-host-in-treating-this-disease

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/why-some-covid-19-cases-are-worse-than-others-67160

Not wanting to be too morbid or depressing hence keeping to this thread....

I don't know what the official medical/consensus view is of this but things will be moving fast on multiple fronts - development and testing of a vaccines, development and mass production of antibodies tests to determine population immunity (those who have had the virus), anti-viral drugs, and immuno-suppression drugs. They all need proper testing for safety primarily and also efficacy before they can be mass produced and released onto the market.

Hurdity x
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Souris on March 23, 2020, 03:49:50 AM
I've absolutely no idea what Breitbart is, I only read the one specific link!

I'm American. Breitbart is absolutely NOT to be trusted as a source of accurate information. it's basically propaganda and not a journalistic outlet. I wouldn't believe anything I read from them unless I also saw it on a legitimate news site.

There's so much rubbish information out there about this virus, it's upsetting.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Sparrow on March 23, 2020, 06:37:49 AM
Thanks for the warning Souris.  There is a lot of rubbish out there fed by fear.

Take care.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Hurdity on March 29, 2020, 08:35:56 AM
Those of you interested in some of the scientific and medical research going on might like this website: Centre for Evidence Based Medicine which "develops, promotes and disseminates better evidence for healthcare.".

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/

This is what they say at the top of the page: "The CEBM has committed its skills and expertise in evidence synthesis and dissemination to the effort against the current COVID-19 pandemic."

Lots and lots of articles eg latest:

SARS-CoV-2 viral load and the severity of COVID-19

Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine: Current evidence for their effectiveness in treating COVID-19

Hurdity x
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Hurdity on March 30, 2020, 11:24:41 AM
Here is some more information about the anti-malarial drugs being suggested and even used as an anti-viral treatment for Covid-19:

https://www.phc.ox.ac.uk/covid-19/evidence-service/reviews/chloroquine-and-hydroxychloroquine-current-evidence-for-their-effectiveness-in-treating-covid-19

"Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine: Current evidence for their effectiveness in treating COVID-19"

Here is the verdict:

" VERDICT
Several in vitro studies report antiviral activity of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine against SARS-CoV-2. In vivo data, although promising, is currently limited to one study with considerable limitations. On the basis of the weak evidence available to date, treatment guidelines have already incorporated the usage of chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine for certain patients with COVID-19.

Further research should address the optimal dose and duration of treatment, and explore side effects and long-term outcomes.

There is a higher risk of side effects in the presence of renal and liver impairment, and there have been isolated reports of COVID-19 disease-causing renal and hepatic injury.

Over twenty in vivo clinical trials have already been registered to test the use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine for the treatment of COVID-19.

Contraindications for the use of these drugs must be checked for each individual before treatment. Empirical evidence suggests that hydroxychloroquine has a better safety profile, and it might, therefore, be preferable to focus research efforts on this less toxic metabolite.
"

It's great that trials are taking place but whether the outcome is likely to be known in time for this current pandemic - I don't know  :-\

Hurdity x
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Sparrow on March 30, 2020, 12:23:56 PM
China was using the HIV drugs right from the beginning.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Hurdity on March 30, 2020, 04:33:07 PM
Drugs cannot be prescribed on the basis of "seem to be succeeding". This can ONLY be determined by properly conducted randomised control trials (and there is no shortage of patients to work with) else you won't know whether any improvement is down to the drug or not? The patients who succeed may well have recovered anyway.

Also if it is approved (properly) then pharmas can go into mass production. As it is apparently the drug in question is now becoming in short supply and is apparently needed for people with lupus to control their condition. Better that the drug  is approved, licensed and manufactured properly I would say especially also if there are question marks about correct dosage and safety. OK this is a press article not a paper but gives the picture I presume:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/vital-drug-people-lupus-coronavirus-covid-19-link-hydroxychloroquine

Hurdity x
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Hurdity on March 30, 2020, 04:39:58 PM
Here is some information (technical report) from EU (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control)

"Discharge criteria for confirmed COVID-19 cases ? When is it safe to discharge COVID-19 cases from the hospital or end home isolation?"

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/COVID-19-Discharge-criteria.pdf

It was produced on request of an EU member state.

Since we mainly have CV-19 tests for hospital admissions (now NHS workers too) it is somewhat academic in the sense that how does anyone know whether or not they have either had the virus or are still shedding it, and if this varies if they have had it mildly? If everyone showing symptoms were to be tested ( as happened initially) then those who were positive could be asked to isolate longer perhaps rather than as now, send potentially infectious people back to work too soon.

Hurdity x
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Hurdity on March 30, 2020, 07:06:12 PM
Excellent new website!

CORONAVIRUS: THE SCIENCE EXPLAINED

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/

Produced by an organisation "UK Research and Innovation". It really is a great source of scientific information summarised and presented in an easy to understand way.

"Coronavirus: the science explained lays out the evidence and the facts about the virus, the disease, the epidemic, and its control.

Prepared by leading researchers and science writers, this series of short articles addresses questions of interest to individuals seeking information on the coronavirus outbreak, whether for personal or professional reasons.

The information in each article is correct, to our knowledge, at the date of publication. As the global research effort gathers pace, there will be many new findings about this virus, its effects and treatment, and the number of articles published on this website will grow accordingly.

Some new discoveries may alter what was previously understood. When there is new evidence that materially changes what has been published here, it will be updated accordingly. Where there are no answers yet to outstanding questions, the articles will make that clear.

This website does not publish original research; readers with a deeper interest in the science can find links to primary sources in each article.

This website also does not present policy statements, health or travel advice, or the latest statistics on coronavirus cases and deaths. Those who are seeking information on these topics should visit official websites for authoritative advice, including:
" (list of websites given)

There are four sections (at the time of writing):

Coronavirus and disease
Understand the course of infection and disease, how people become infectious and more

Understanding outbreaks
Learn about how the virus spreads through populations, who is at greater risk and why.  (ie the epidemiology)

Vaccination, diagnosis and treatment
Discover the latest progress made in diagnostic tests, treatments, and vaccines.

Public health
Learn the reasons for control measures including testing, quarantine, restricting public gatherings, and other forms of 'social distancing'.

Hurdity x
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Taz2 on March 31, 2020, 07:35:43 AM
Thanks Hurdity. Information that's clear and easy to understand. I've signed up for new updates.

Taz  :thankyou:
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Kathleen on April 01, 2020, 04:46:09 PM
Hello ladies

Hurdity - thanks for all the information and science links.

Take care.

K.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: CLKD on April 01, 2020, 06:18:39 PM
Prepared by leading researchers and science writers,

anyone in particular ?
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Hurdity on April 01, 2020, 06:22:29 PM
If you follow the link CLKD it will tell you

Hurdity x
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Hurdity on April 03, 2020, 08:05:36 PM
There was discussion on the coronavirus chat threads about viral load so I found some info:

Centre for Evidence based medicine

SARS-CoV-2 viral load and the severity of COVID-19

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/sars-cov-2-viral-load-and-the-severity-of-covid-19/

New Scientist
Does a high viral load or infectious dose make covid-19 worse?

Read more:
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238819-does-a-high-viral-load-or-infectious-dose-make-covid-19-worse/

Telegraph
 
What is viral load and why are so many health workers getting sick?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/viral-load-many-health-workers-getting-sick/

Hurdity x
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Lanie66 on April 08, 2020, 09:12:15 AM
Morning ladies, I haven't looked at the forum for a little while then logged on this morning to find all this great info.   This is really useful especially for those of us trying to avoid news bulletins and facebook both of which focus on the bad news.  This forum is a safe place to come.  I know there is a lot of bad news, I didnt have health anxiety before but I do now. I'm sure that's the same for alot of people.

I mainly want to vent about 3 things, hope that's ok.  Firstly, how purposeless I feel - I feel lucky and guilty at the same time that I am not a front line worker, nor have I volunteered other than giving my number to a couple of elderly in my street. Ordinary people have become crucial to all our lives, putting themselves at risk while the rest of us stay at home.  I find this in particular difficult to rationalise. I am so grateful to them.

Secondly, my anxiety is heightened as my husband (54) has a rare condition which primarily produces lung cysts.  Hes had pleurectomy ops to remove but in my mind hes bound to be at higher risk.  He has not been identified by letter so looks like same risk as anyone else. Related to this, we don't know if my 19yr old daughter has inherited this condition, she could get tested at 18 but was still thinking whether to or not when this virus erupted.  When I hear the phrase 'no known health conditions' I realise that it could be you've got something you just dont know you have it. This is the reason I dont volunteer in case I bring something into the house.  I'm also the one doing the shopping etc to reduce the risk to my family. I realise this is all in my head.

And thirdly I have read about the perceived (not proven) additional risk for people with blood group A in catching the virus more easily and being less able to recover from it.  I am A-, as is my son, my daughter is A+.  I've heard all sorts of Covid19 related discussions, particularly we listen to radio 5, (or I did), but nothing that has mentioned the Chinese study on blood types or anything similar.  There must be lots of info that is withheld so as not to cause mass panic. Theres the anxiety.

These are terrible times for all of us, and
I'm finding that trying to maintain composure is becoming more and more difficult.

Thanks for allowing me to bleat on.  Stay safe everyone x
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Lanie66 on April 10, 2020, 07:38:33 AM
Thank you Stellajane for your words of reason and reassurance.  We have no way of knowing how bad it really is since the UK Govt in its wisdom isn't releasing all the stats, maybe that's a good thing. Trying to find the quietest time at a supermarket 30 minutes  away will continue to be a challenge ;)

xx
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Hurdity on April 10, 2020, 09:38:38 AM
Hi lanie66 - sorry to hear about your worries about your husband's condition amidst the current CV-19 pandemic. Of course you have purpose at this time, especially as the one in your family who is keeping the others going by doing the shopping! Very stressful! I am doing it for my household (husband in mid 70's) as well as an elderly relative in 90's who lives a drive away. I know what you mean about conditions. I have a close realtive with a particular condition so is definitley in the vulnerable group possibly also shpould be shieled ( is doing this themsleves) but the condition is such that it is very variable so is not offocially in that A1 category. My neighbour in 60's also has bronchiectasis - another condition with lung cysts and also very vulnerable (more so than my husband in 70's who is fit and healthy) though not among the shielded and she is also not going out at all.

Regarding the blood group research - hello to a fellow A negative!!! I had to have the injections after my children were born. Of course the media tend to like sensational headlines. The actual study has not yet been published officially as it has not been peer reviewed and as far as I gather the results were not statistically significant. I found a critique of it the other day but can't find the same one now. However here is the study (prior to publication):

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v2.full.pdf

There are also comments on it underneath here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v2

Here are some commentaries on it:

Scientific commentary
https://www.sciencealert.com/paper-suggests-certain-blood-types-might-be-slightly-more-susceptible-to-covid-19

Candian journalism article:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/experts-skeptical-of-study-linking-blood-type-to-covid-19-risk-1.4869886

There are heaps more if you want to look.

I did have a quick glance the other day but saw nothing alarming. I mean it would be unusual for there not to be slight genetic differences in susceptibility to diseases and the immune response although I am way out of my depth here!

I won't get into any of the political disucssion about figures etc on this thread as I want to keep it mainly to the science etc but do please visit the This and That section where there are multiple Coronavirus threads and you will find lots more words of comfort and support and chat about all your worries from the members that have the time to come onto the forum.

However I just wanted to take up one point you made. I don't know what you mean by "the UK Govt in its wisdom isn't releasing all the stats" ? I am wondering what stats you are interested in that you feel are being withheld? The way I see it - there just are not the stats available for example to look at the epdiemiology of this disease in UK because as soon as we entered the second mitigate phase, widespread testing stops, so not so much iwtholding data but just not there! The govt releases daily figures by region of numbers of cases tested positive, those admitted to hospital, those in cirtical care, as well as total deaths from CV-19 in hospital, and there are now weekly figures of total deaths (produced by ONS) including those outside hospitals where CV-19 is strongly suspected as being the cause.

Anyway all the best and try to keep your spirits up in this glorious weather if you can get out either in your garden if you have one or for a daily walk? :)

Hurdity x





Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Lanie66 on April 11, 2020, 08:49:44 PM
Thankyou for taking the time to respond so fully, Hurdity.  I wont labour about the stats thing here, it doesn't help anyone and as you say its more about discussing rather than politics.

I will check out the links and the this and that section. 

Yes weather is glorious even here in the very north of England! I have a lovely garden which I feel very fortunate to have and it is work in progress so it keeps us busy.   

Best wishes to you and your family during this.   Stay safe xx
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: sheila99 on April 11, 2020, 10:36:46 PM
Try Morrisons, I ordered on Thurs for delivery on Monday.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Emma on May 07, 2020, 02:16:38 PM
(https://www.menopausematters.co.uk/images/covid.jpg)

I've removed some posts on here for spreading misinformation.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Taz2 on May 07, 2020, 03:04:34 PM
Thanks Emma.

Taz  :)
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: CLKD on May 07, 2020, 03:41:16 PM
How would you know  :-\
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Emma on May 07, 2020, 03:55:15 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/52369688/coronavirus-health-claims-debunked
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: CLKD on May 07, 2020, 06:48:39 PM
 :thankyou: maybe the responses should have had a separate thread so that we can all keep up  with what might be true or otherwise?  We post in all good faith ..........
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Tc on May 07, 2020, 08:33:09 PM
Thank you. I agree that unverified or unsubstantiated information can be dangerous. 

But i also believe  the expression "mis information"  has  historically been used to curb freedom of speech and I'm very wary of it myself.

So in general, I  believe freedom of speech when quoting sources (and not breaking the law or  being offensive  or prejudiced or inciting hate or harm  to individuals or groups)  might then allow  for others to counter, contradict or debunk. To think and research for themselves and  is perhaps more enlightening than using one media source to be the guide of what should and shouldnt be expressed and discussed.

I have always steered clear of party politics on here. In my life it's something I've increasingly become disinterested in. and I only ever share my personal experience and those which I have first hand of on here  but I also have to say  I personally  do not look to the BBC to gauge what is true and what isnt..

I value this forum very highly indeed and appreciate the work that goes into running it.  It is fundamentally about menopause,of course, but in these unprecedented times we cant divorce our experience as menopausal.women from our experience of such a  huge global issue which has had such a massive impact on all our lives.   

I hope we can all continue to support each other through menopause during this crisis and continue to be respectful and mindful of what we say and how it affects others.

Thank you again.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: CLKD on May 07, 2020, 08:36:00 PM
 :thankyou:   ........ we live in Strange Times and it will become stranger after Boris has his say on Sunday  ::)
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Sparrow on May 08, 2020, 07:56:50 AM
Tc, I agree with your posts.  Unfortunately I think depate has now been stifled as members will be concerned about crossing a vague, invisible line.

Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Hurdity on May 08, 2020, 08:31:37 AM
What brought this on? I wasn't on the forum yesterday so have I missed something?

Well  I'm glad we don't give airtime to conspiracy theories if that's what it was about and certainly not on this thread!  The place for anything like that for those who are interested is This and That but I wouldn't waste my breath talking about them, or life reading about them and I feel sorry for scientists that have to waste their valuable time debunking them. Unfortunately these days fake news and daft ideas are very easy to spread and many cannot distinguish between proper science and rubbish (not here of course!).

Science does of course progress through hypotheses and controversy ? but always backed up by proper evidence, not pseudo-science or erroneous conclusions (eg correlation does not equal causation for one).

As to where we get our news from - well websites like the one below is reporting the science and reuptable news organisations distill some of this in an even easier to understand way. Although not of course infallible and maybe sometimes politically biased ( to the right?), but given the plethora of outlets available I think we can trust the BBC as far as communicating the science is concerned.

Anyway here are some of the latest developments from that website I linked to which explains scientific concepts in an easy to understand way:

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/?utm_source=Govdelivery&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=newsletter

Each article is short and simple but with ample scientific references for those who want to follow up a particular topic. Some of them we've discussed before on the forum and I've probably linked to them already on this thread or others but it won't hurt to show them again...

What lessons about vaccine development can be learnt from animal coronaviruses?

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/vdt0010/

What are the origins of novel human infectious diseases like COVID-19?

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/und0007/

How long can coronavirus survive outside of the body?

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/pub0008/

Can infected people without symptoms transmit coronavirus?

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/und0006/

The ethics of allocating scarce medical resources during a pandemic

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/pub0007/

Can animals get COVID-19?

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/cad0008/

Enjoy the bank holiday girls and stay safe  ::)

Hurdity x
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Sparrow on May 08, 2020, 08:36:19 AM
As you say, you didn't read the offending posts, and from what I remember they had nothing to do with conspiracy theories.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: sheila99 on May 08, 2020, 09:10:56 AM
Someone seemed to believe what Micovits said, then one or two criticising the flu jab.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-tech-video/facebook-youtube-remove-plandemic-video-with-unsubstantiated-coronavirus-claims-idUKKBN22K077
Right to remove it IMO, this sort of misinformation shouldn't be given air time.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: CLKD on May 08, 2020, 09:42:15 AM
I have posted many times about the 'flu jab.  It doesn't help anyone to remove comments ........ we are all adults after all.

Maybe contact Emma, Hurdity .......... she thought it necessary to pull comments  :-\ which has upset some Members.  A separate thread about false news would be of use to many I am sure.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: dangermouse on May 08, 2020, 10:13:29 PM
Im not sure science is very reliable for something with so many unknown unknowns right now.

They were rubbishing the fact many had symptoms prior to March in the UK, saying they knew without any doubt when the first case was. Now they've found samples from December 19 which have tested positive for COVID-19. So much more to come out/or get covered up.  :o

I wonder why these rules about posting non-factually backed up claims and suspicions dont apply to the media.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Sparrow on May 09, 2020, 07:32:36 AM
You are absolutely right DM.

And what about the dis-information that comes from government.  120,000 tests in one day that included 40,000 in the post.

I dispare.  :(
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: CLKD on May 09, 2020, 09:34:51 AM
I can't work out why 'they' need targets.

I also meant to look up whether nursing homes have been included in care home figures  :-\ but that was when I was churning over at 2.30 a.m.  :-X

I want transparency.  I don't care how bad/good it is.  I want the truth.  I also want to know why PPE was bought B4 it was checked to see whether it complies with British Standard, FFS we are short of the stuff.  Some is surely better than none  :-\
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Kathleen on May 10, 2020, 02:59:52 PM
Hello ladies.

The documentary featuring Micovits has her promoting some truly wacky ideas. Her claims are easily checked and found to be incorrect. I assume she continues unashamedly because she has a book to sell.

I don't think any PPE is better than none for infection control. It either completely protects the individual or it doesn't.  A doctor on twitter demonstrated the third gown to split while he was treating a patient.

Unfortunately there seems to be a lot of PR and spin surrounding this crisis so I recommend doing your own fact checking ladies.

Take care everyone and stay safe.

K.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: CLKD on May 14, 2020, 03:52:30 PM
I don't suppose it will ever be found how many patients were VitD deficient.  Most of us should have got a good top up in the last 2 months though ;-).
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: sheila99 on May 14, 2020, 04:23:55 PM
I thought that was another myth that had been debunked? A correlation doesn't prove cause and effect. It's like saying more red cars are involved in accidents therefore red cars are dangerous and you should drive a blue one. Obviously good to keep vit d levels up though.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: CLKD on May 14, 2020, 04:27:14 PM
One doesn't need to check levels with a blood test unless 1 feels ill.  I would do 20 mins. weeding then have to sit.  Not moving at all. For 2 hours.  I knew something was wrong and feared  :-\  :-\ ...... but a blood test showed my levels were low.  If someone isn't feeling unwell, they probably have enough VitD.  At the same time, Mum was having similar symptoms too which alerted me after her blood test showed low levels.  We both had capsules which sorted the problem.  We both spent a lot of time outdoors in our gardens ......... after a dull Winter.

Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Sparrow on May 14, 2020, 04:40:59 PM
There are several studies going on at the moment.  These are proper academic studies, but can't remember who by as heard it on the radio a few days ago.  Most that have already been done were observational and with too few people.  Hopefully the new ones will give a clearer picture.

I have increased my Vit D intake as I have too be careful about my skin now, and use lots of sunblock.
Title: Re: Covid-19 "Coronavirus" - science, epidemiology and health discussion
Post by: Hurdity on May 17, 2020, 06:49:13 PM
Here is some info about the trials being undertaken to treat Covid-19 patients with plasma from recovered infected patients, to see if it helps their recovery (ie using their naturally produced anti-bodies):

https://www.nhsbt.nhs.uk/covid-19-research/research-and-trials/

Hurdity x