As always we don't know the full details of this study which has not yet been published. A press release (with probably more information than reported in the press) will have been sent to the press – but the abstract of the paper will give us more details.
The Guardian gives a little more information:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/aug/23/combined-hrt-increases-breast-cancer-risk-nearly-300The details of the study are not clear at this point.
When they talk about combined oestrogen and progestogen – do they mean continuous combined only or all forms of HRT in which a progestogen is used?
Also how do these results vary according to where the woman is in menopause and her age? This is absolutely crucial.
We need to know what sort of “pills†were used for this study – is this across the board ie all types? What about transdermal HRT? How do the results vary for different progestogens and progesterone? I doubt there are sufficient data to assess the latter). Without this information the results are meaningless – since other studies have shown no increase in breast cancer for those using progesterone vs some of the synthetic progestogens (don't have the studies to hand), and that progesterone (Utrogestan) is thought to be "breast friendly".
Crucially – this is a study of association and correlation – as far as I can gather what is known as a “longitudinal study†where women are followed over time. This is very different from a placebo controlled trial which sets out to look at cause and effect - in which some women are treated and others not.
For example one could argue that certain other factors (background, lifestyle – alcohol, weight, smoking etc) could make some women's menopausal symptoms worse and drive them to seek help from their doctor for HRT, and it could be these factors which account for the differences in risk observed in the study and might lead to greater breast cancer. I'm not saying this is the case but you can't conclude causality from non-experimental data.
I expect the British Menopause Society will release a statement in response to this and it will appear on this website in “Newsâ€. I see that Dr Currie has already made a statement (in the press) and mentions lifestyle factors, and there is a link to another study and Guardian article ( haven't read this – too early, going out!)
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jan/08/higher-breast-cancer-white-women-alcohol-breastfeeding-birth-rate.
The 7 day progesterone treatment is not to prevent breast cancer but for progesterone intolerant women. There has to be a balance between preventing endometrial and breast cancer. If utrogestan is breast friendly then no need maybe for the 7 days anyway?
Mojo61 - it is absolutely OK to post links in fact we are encouraged to do so to substantiate any claims made. We can link to anything except websites where you buy something including some of the many (mainly US based) menopause doctors who also sell vitamins and creams. the rule is designed to stop people from companies coming on here promoting their menopausal products really.
Hurdity x